This all-encompassing approach to categorizing relations with an actor, in lieu of piecemeal responses to each individual action, provides a greater context for decisionmakers to set policy aims. 35 Scott D. Sagan, The Origins of the Pacific War, The Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18, no. captures the nuances of U.S.-adversary and U.S.-ally relations. JFQ. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW It shapes both strategic debates and real political, military and economic dynamics. The following sections describe the three conditions in more depth, provide examples reflecting each condition, and briefly illustrate the role of the joint force in the context of this model. In 2011, the previous centrality of power dissolved when President Ali Abdullah Saleh resigned following youth-led uprisings and was replaced by thenVice President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi.25 The government remained weak, thus allowing various groups such as the Harak southern separatists, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and the Houthi rebels to control most of the country.26 After a gradual consolidation of power and transformation into a militia, the Houthis fought their way to the capital and, in January 2015, removed Hadi from power.27. Analysis An introduction to Asia-Pacific regional security. Thus, the primary purpose of the U.S. military is to fight and win the Nations wars.39, Soldiers begin loading supplies on UH-60 A+ Black Hawk, February 22, 2012, as part of task force to provide humanitarian assistance at request of government of Montenegro after heavy snowfall (U.S. Army/Edwin Bridges), The uncertainties of the future and the realities of the present require a paradigm shift in the way the joint force views the operating environment. At Brookings Institution, February 23, 2017, General Dunford assessed risk posed by Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and violent extremism (DOD/D. On page nine, it notes that, Although Bidens more multilateral approach to foreign policy is welcomed, there is still a widespread perception that the U.S. mainly looks after its own interests in world affairs. National Security Policy in the Age of Great-Power Competition Policy is an instrument of government action. It addresses perception biases, identifies conditions resulting from interests, and outlines possibilities for influencing conditions. Furthermore, the model has utility beyond the joint force, offering a basis for all instruments of national power to achieve policy aims with a consistent view of U.S. strategic relationships. The U.S. strategic focus has increasingly turned to major-power competition, but there is currently no framework for understanding U.S. competition with near-peer rivals China and Russia. By Daniel Burkhart and Alison Woody Photo: JACQUES DEMARTHON/AFP/Getty Images, Commentary The main headline of the poll is seemingly reassuring: Americas Image Abroad Rebounds With Transition From Trump to Biden. Most initial press reporting has focused on these results and they are important, but they need far more qualification. . Referred to by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph F. Dunford as the four-plus-one challenges (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and the so-called Islamic State), these rival actors are evading U.S. strength by competing at a level below the threshold of a coercive U.S. or allied military response.4 These revisionist state and nonstate actors are working to contest the rules and norms established in the postWorld War II order to create a system more sympathetic to their interests. Cooperation is strategically important for the United States. This is not to argue that international relations are in a constant state of . Cooperative activities across DIME instruments could include friendly diplomatic actions, training exercises to increase interoperability, security cooperation, and economic partnerships. As Paul Heer writes in the first of this week's two lead articles, ' [w]e now know that this rapid sequence of events . Proxy warfare is another manifestation of competition below armed conflict when considered from the perspective of actors employing the proxies, since the parties in question are not using their own forces for overt coercive military action. 1) Strategic theory is not just the study of military power. In the process, they developed a framework for assessing a competition between major powers in four dimensions: (1) overall context for the competition, (2) national power and competitiveness, (3) international position and influence, and (4) shape and standing of bilateral contests. RAND research over the last several years has focused on the nature of Russia's strategy and priorities, the tools it uses to compete with the U.S., and how these activities affect U.S. and NATO interests. Relations between Beijing and Washington have entered a new and dangerous phase. Policymakers may more accurately understand and respond to actions of other actors, while military professionals are enabled to provide best military advice and convey intent. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. RAND Corporation research over the past few years sheds light on many aspects of the complex and evolving relationship. 4 (Spring 1988), 675700. It spans all aspects of state power: hard, sharp and soft; diplomatic, information, military and economic; and all domains: air, sea, land, space, cyber, technology and innovation. It is all too easy to focus on the military aspects of strategic competition with China and Russia or on the political issues of the day and to instead ignore the importance of how our allies, strategic partners, and other states perceive the United States. This article discusses the complicated relationship between strategic studies and international relations, and that part of the latter discipline known as security studies. Subscribe to the weekly Policy Currents newsletter to receive updates on the issues that matter most. The Global Strategic Crisis and Competition War Game (SC2) has been a two-year West Point Cadet capstone research project that aims to improve the efficiency and educational benefit of . The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a non-profit, bipartisan public policy organization established in 1962 to provide strategic insights and practical policy solutions to . Josh Chin is deputy China bureau chief for the Wall Street Journal and co-author of Surveillance State: Inside China's Quest to Launch a New Era of Social Control (St. Martin's Press), named a best book of 2022 by New Statesmen, Prospect Magazine, KQED, and others.He previously covered politics and tech as a reporter in China. The strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific involving the United States, Australia and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is arguably the most significant contemporary international relations issue. What is the global context for U.S. competition with China and Russia, and what interests does each party bring to that dynamic? . Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, Conflict After the Cold War: Arguments on Causes of War and Peace, Dynamic Balance: An Alliance Requirements Roadmap for the Asia-Pacific Region, Doctrine for the United States Armed Forces, Humanitarian Assistance & Disaster Relief, International Law & National Security Law, http://breakingdefense.com/2016/09/cjcs-dunford-calls-for-strategic-shifts-at-peace-or-at-war-is-insufficient/, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/confessions-of-a-hybrid-warfare-skeptic, www.cnas.org/sites/default/files/publications-pdf/CNASReport-AllianceRoadmap-Final.pdf, www.economist.com/news/europe/21599829-new-propaganda-war-underpins-kremlins-clash-west-1984-2014, www.economist.com/news/europe/21601899-russian-presidents-unexpected-concessions-ukraine-reflect-fact-he-has-already-got, How Russian Spy Games Are Sabotaging Ukraines Intelligence Agency, Hosted by Defense Media Activity - WEB.mil. As the risk of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization military backlash subsided, Russian forces gradually transitioned to more overt uses of force.23. 12 George R. Packard, The United StatesJapan Security Treaty at 50: Still a Grand Bargain? Foreign Affairs 89, no. Military action in the condition of armed conflict can aim to either contain, defeat, or destroy an enemy. Xi to visit Moscow for direct meeting with Putin in cementing of superpowers' relations The overseas trip marks Xi Jinping's first after he secured an unprecedented third term as China's head of . Adopt a campaigning mindset by viewing adversary activities and U.S. response options as part of a competitive long game rather than discrete events. Threats have moved beyond exploitation and disruption to destruction and corrosion. However, in retrospect, there is an inherent contradiction in these beliefs. Therefore it is worth mentioning briefly what strategic theory is not. The joint force must be prepared to prevail in open armed conflict. Of course, this is an intentionally reductionist view and, in reality, interests will fall on a scale of greater complexity and nuance. Since rational actors behave according to their interests, the activities they employ are indicative of the condition at hand. 7 U.S. Special Operations Command, The Gray Zone, white paper, September 9, 2015. 1 Examples of rising powers include Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. He is not moved by humanitarian crises or overly concerned about international condemnation. Once one actor escalates the condition to armed conflict, the other must decide whether to engage the opponents military forces and continue to operate in armed conflict or use other means in an attempt to depart from armed conflict.34 Whether the activity triggers a military response depends on a variety of factors, including the value of the object in view, the scale of the attack, the actors available capabilities, and the desired condition from the point of view of the target actor. From a regional perspective, the crisis in Yemen has become indicative of the geopolitical competition for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Drawing on extensive research on the economic, military, and geopolitical dimensions of U.S. strategic competition with these countries, RAND researchers assembled high-level findings and recommendations to support immediate policy decisions to ensure the U.S. competitive advantage. The Aukus submarines deal, Seoul's warmer relations with Tokyo and tighter Philippine ties with the US all pose a challenge to . After World War II, the majority of global power was divided between two poles until the fall of the Soviet Union gave rise to a unipolar system. international relations, and specifically as a sign that nation-states should no longer be considered the pre-eminent unit in global politics. A copy of the full text of the Pew poll and report is attached at the end of this commentary, and the documents is available online here . Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND, and Ph.D. Michael Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1989), 75. The international system is a vastly complex and densely populated network comprised of actors with interests and relationships that are overlapping to various degrees and, at times, conflicting. S trategic competition is the frame through which the United States views its relationship with the People's Republic of China (PRC). One of the main principles of strategic competition is that the response of an organization regarding another one's introduction of a new product defines the impact of such in the market. 21 Philip Shishkin, How Russian Spy Games Are Sabotaging Ukraines Intelligence Agency, Wall Street Journal, March 11, 2015; Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, Crimea and Russias Strategic Overhaul, Parameters 44, no. It also makes it clear that the United States cannot rely on its own perceptions of Americans in competing. U.S. Department of State - United States Department of State (New York: Pearson, 2012), 1834; Thomas H. Henriksen, The Coming Great Powers Competition, World Affairs 158, no. Categorizing relationships in terms of cooperation, competition below armed conflict, and armed conflict equips joint leaders with an improved lexicon for providing best military advice and conveying intent. There are good reasons for these limits. The conditions-based model is a comprehensive approach to understanding strategic relationships in an increasingly complex world. Marxism. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. For the United States, competition is driven by China's challenge to American power and leadership, and its desire to change the international order. For each strategic relationship, the actor using the model must identify the current condition and the desired condition, the latter being that which the actor hopes to bring about based on internal interests and ambitions. Passed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee by a vote of 21-1, the Strategic Competition Act advances concrete cooperation with alliances and partnerships; restores American leadership of international and regional organizations; addresses China's predatory economic practices; emphasizes economic strength and innovation in technology and It is the line under the title that sounds a critical strategic warning: But many raise concerns about health of U.S. political system. As is the case with many polls, the results need to be put in context, and it is the full range of results that count not a simple bottom line. 34 This action can take the form of concessions, surrender, negotiations, treaty, among others. The poll then, however, begins to communicate a different message. programs offered at an independent public policy research organizationthe RAND Corporation. 17 JP 3-0, Joint Operations (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, 2011). It was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). See Media Page for more interview, contact, and citation details. Despite periodic hopes for a "reset" in U.S. relations with Russia over the past decade, Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 laid bare the need for the United States to compete and deter Russian aggression in its near abroad, and on the world stage. Much of this work is conducted within RAND's National Security Research Division (NSRD). Preparations included a robust information operations offensive, consisting of a heavy barrage of propaganda targeting Russian-speaking viewers of state-run media in the near abroad.20 As the expansion unfolded, Russian tactics included espionage and both covert and overt military action.21 Even though Putin engaged the military instrument of power, he did not consider the behavior as constituting war, and he neither declared war nor stated an intention to seize Crimea.22 Repeated denials of Russian involvement from the Kremlin also contributed to widespread confusion about the actors involved in the crisis. However, its long-term success depends on maintaining a strong economic posture and willingness to engage economically on an international scale; the alignment of key allies and partners; ideological influence over international rules, norms, and institutions; and a strong global military posture relative to competing powers. This term refers to an approach characterized by activities such as irregular warfare, low-intensity conflict, and gradual operations. Drawing upon decades of experience, RAND provides research services, systematic analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele that includes government agencies, foundations, and private-sector firms. This in itself helps to clarify the nature and value of this approach. Joint Force Quarterly 86. An analysis of China's ability to use various mechanisms of influence to shape the policies and behavior of 20 countries finds that China's economic power is the foundation for its influence. March 28, 2023. 6 Christopher Paul, Confessions of a Hybrid Warfare Skeptic, Small Wars Journal (March 3, 2016), available at . For instance, while Red and Blue may cooperate economically and compete militarily, all activities in their relationship are component elements of the underlying condition.9 Additionally, while the model does not imply that the three conditions follow a linear progression, there is an implied hierarchy of coercive measures employed. In addition to the relative importance of an interest, available capabilities are a limiting factor in an actors determination to pursue an interest. In this model, competitive economic activities should be understood as activities undertaken when one actor intends to strategically compete for its vital interests. U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS. CSIS's International Security Program has analyzed these threats and how the United States can best deter, campaign in, and respond to gray zone approaches. In addition to the jump in Germany, there have been double-digit increases in such sentiment in Greece, the Netherlands, Japan, Canada, France, the UK and Spain. And what trends are working to weaken traditional U.S. advantages? Actors will always have multiple interests, which will vary in importance, priority, and feasibility. Karl Marx was a Prussian philosopher and economist whose works posited that societies could escape the self-destructive nature of capitalist socioeconomic systems by implementing socialist theory into their policies, both locally and abroad. By operating in ways that do not evoke a military response, they are able to exploit U.S. processes.6 Consequently, the current modus operandi does not fully account for the utility of the U.S. military in conditions outside of armed conflict. There have been significant increases in the shares saying the U.S. considers their interests when making foreign policy since the question was last asked during the Trump presidency. . Avoiding unconstrained geostrategic competition in favor of managed competition would create a basis for improved cooperation on climate change. Long-term relations between the two states will be strongly influenced by their respective approaches to foreign policy and international affairs. 15 Patrick M. Cronin, Mira Rapp-Hooper, and Harry Krejsa, Dynamic Balance: An Alliance Requirements Roadmap for the Asia-Pacific Region (Washington, DC: Center for a New American Security, 2016), available at . What have been the public health, political, and economic ramifications of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa? U.S. military activities are a critical component of achieving and maintaining national security interests within the condition of competition. 8 States may exhibit behavior that appears irrational due to imperfect information. Even as the joint force must be prepared to prevail in war, it has significant utility for conditions outside of armed conflict. The three conditions used to categorize relationships are cooperation, competition below armed conflict, and armed conflict. In the field of economics broadly, competition is understood to be a necessary and beneficial characteristic of open economies. Returning now to our fictional actors, Red chooses to employ the conditions-based model and begins by examining several factors about the actor in question, including Blues behavior, capabilities, ideology, experience, and statements. Usually it's globally or in key strategic areas. 2021 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Actors intentions and interests determine conditions, but perception is also important in this model for two reasons. programs offered at an independent public policy research organizationthe RAND Corporation. Figure Two shows a range of these very different results. Mazarr, Michael J., Bryan Frederick, and Yvonne K. Crane, Understanding a New Era of Strategic Competition. Strategic Competition. competition garner significant attention and resources. These conditions account for both war and peace as well as the gray zone in between. 5 In this instance, war can be either declared or part of an active contingency plan. Actors may cooperate over the long term or they can cooperate on a specific issue in an isolated instance. Marxism, a theory that closely analyzes social classes, aims to dismantle the capitalist . 2 (Fall 1995), 6369. Washington, DC 20319-5066, The premier professional military and academic publishing house. 20 Russian Propaganda: 1984 in 2014, The Economist, March 29, 2014, 52, available at ; Putins Gambit: Russia and the Ukraine, The Economist, May 10, 2014, 49, available at ; Andrei Aliaksandrau, Brave New War: The Information War Between Russia and Ukraine, Index on Censorship 43, no. Confusion, miscommunication, lies, crude posturing, finger-pointing last month's 'balloongate' was the contemporary US-China relationship in microcosm. It does not, however, address views of strategic competition or include many states where the U.S. already competes with China and Russia at a white area, gray area, and military level, nor does it measure faith the U.S. capability to be a valid strategic partner in dealing with China and Russia as a threat. Chin led an investigative team that won the Gerald Loeb Award for . It needs to have the respect and trust of as many other powers as possible, and it needs to actually earn it on a consistent basis. This report provides a broad-based understanding of the economic, geopolitical, and military dimensions of these competitions and identifies recommendations for strategic policy action and investment. Red may indeed attempt to take military action despite its relative weakness, but this enterprise is likely to result in the annihilation of Red as an actor on the international stage. It is brutally clear from the text that follows and by the break outs of trends by country that foreign perceptions of President Trump were generally highly negative, dropped sharply during the election and the riots in Washington and the Capitol that followed, and have risen sharply as the Biden Administration has reversed the Trump Administrations emphasis on a transactional foreign policy that emphasized direct benefits to the United States and has renewed Americas emphasis on actual partnership. 2 (June 2009), 241256. For the last 25 years, Russia has been focused on regaining the ability to influence actions beyond its own region. Information operations range from deception and disinformation techniques to propaganda. The African continent is increasingly the nexus of great power competition between the U.S. and China. 2 (April 2015), 7185; Peter Salisbury, Yemen and the Saudi-Iranian Cold War (London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2015). For Beijing, competition stems from American hegemonic pretensions during its inevitable decline. Activities reflecting the condition of armed conflict are hostile in nature and employ the overt use of coercive military power against another actor in the international system.33 This use of force can target civilian or military citizens, infrastructure, or resources, and may result in adversary retaliation. What is the current U.S. competitive position relative to China and Russia, and what steps should the United States take to ensure its competitive advantage? It's worth understanding how they got there. 24 Laura Kasinof, How the Houthis Did It, Foreign Policy, January 23, 2015. 10:00 AM11:30 AM EDT (UTC-4) Washington, D.C. Register to attend Add to Calendar. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. The condition of competition below armed conflict exists when two actors in the international system have incompatible high-priority interests and one or both actors engage in or intend to engage in behavior that will be detrimental to the others interests. This article begins by charting a framework for the conditions-based model, clarifying the mechanisms of this model, and presenting a theoretical rationale for its adoption. Activities reflecting the condition of armed conflict involve coercive use of DIME instruments of power. The real nature of the competition is complex and requires looking closer at the role of non-State actors and their operations. The model also provides organization and context to enable decisionmakers to consider and offer guidance for the role of the military instrument of power in all conditions. Coercion is more central to the condition of competition below armed conflict, while armed conflict involves the highest intensity of coercive force. This weekly recap focuses on U.S. security cooperation with China and Russia, artificial intelligence, consequences of Russia's war in Ukraine, and more. However, in this case, Red is a nonstate actor with limited power and scope, negligible military might, and meager financial resources. Additionally, it assumes rational actors, defined as states having situational awareness of their external environment and behaving logically to achieve their own goals.8 While a historical examination of state relations on a case-by-case basis would generate fewer exceptions than model-based understanding, models have great use for delineating overarching frameworks. In international relations, "power" has many takers and users, but defining it is still incredibly difficult. A model provides a framework for organizing ideas wherein some aspects of reality are abstracted to produce insight regarding something of special importance. As the Pew survey makes clear, For this report, we use data from nationally representative surveys of 16,254 adults from March 12 to May 26, 2021. Mutually beneficial relationships between actors with similar or compatible high-priority interests are the basis for the condition of cooperation. At the local level, these events reflect a power struggle between various tribal and sectarian alliances, domestic political parties, and the military. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Still, the predominant sentiment, going back to 2002 when the question was first asked, is that the U.S. does not consider the interests of countries like theirs. In this view, military power is most applicable during hostilities, and certain actions are only permissible during a time of war.5 This restricted view leaves space for rivals to achieve their strategic objectives in conditions that do not constitute armed conflict. Washington, DC 20036. 3 John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: Norton, 2001), 341: Power asymmetries among the great powers are more commonplace in multipolarity than bipolarity, and the strong become hard to deter when power is unbalanced, because they have increased capability to win wars. See also John J. Mearsheimer, Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War, in Conflict After the Cold War: Arguments on Causes of War and Peace, ed. Instead of attempting to make predictions about state behavior, this model provides insight and context for decisionmaking. 29 Wehrey, 7185; Mona El-Naggar, Shifting Alliances Play Out Behind Closed Doors in Yemen, New York Times, January 25, 2015. 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